Water FractalTier 1
at Magitek Store Champ
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-1-1
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.2%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
54.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1648
· median 1648
· range 1648–1648
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1280
Q3 1484
1678
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.1% | +2.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
